Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 24th, 2024

Carmelo Mamertino • January 24, 2024

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

January 24, 2024


The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.


Global economic growth continues to slow, with inflation easing gradually across most economies. While growth in the United States has been stronger than expected, it is anticipated to slow in 2024, with weakening consumer spending and business investment. In the euro area, the economy looks to be in a mild contraction. In China, low consumer confidence and policy uncertainty will likely restrain activity. Meanwhile, oil prices are about $10 per barrel lower than was assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased, largely reversing the tightening that occurred last autumn.


The Bank now forecasts global GDP growth of 2½% in 2024 and 2¾% in 2025, following 2023’s 3% pace. With softer growth this year, inflation rates in most advanced economies are expected to come down slowly, reaching central bank targets in 2025.


In Canada, the economy has stalled since the middle of 2023 and growth will likely remain close to zero through the first quarter of 2024. Consumers have pulled back their spending in response to higher prices and interest rates, and business investment has contracted. With weak growth, supply has caught up with demand and the economy now looks to be operating in modest excess supply. Labour market conditions have eased, with job vacancies returning to near pre-pandemic levels and new jobs being created at a slower rate than population growth. However, wages are still rising around 4% to 5%.


Economic growth is expected to strengthen gradually around the middle of 2024. In the second half of 2024, household spending will likely pick up and exports and business investment should get a boost from recovering foreign demand. Spending by governments contributes materially to growth through the year. Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 0.8% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, roughly unchanged from its October projection.


CPI inflation ended the year at 3.4%. Shelter costs remain the biggest contributor to above-target inflation. The Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing, returning to the 2% target in 2025. While the slowdown in demand is reducing price pressures in a broader number of CPI components and corporate pricing behaviour continues to normalize, core measures of inflation are not showing sustained declines.


Given the outlook, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. The Council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly the persistence in underlying inflation. Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 6, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 10, 2024.


Read the January 24th, 2024 Monetary Policy Report


Carmelo Mamertino
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Chances are if you’re applying for a mortgage, you feel confident about the state of your current employment or your ability to find a similar position if you need to. However, your actual employment status probably means more to the lender than you might think. You see, to a lender, your employment status is a strong indicator of your employer’s commitment to your continued employment. So, regardless of how you feel about your position, it’s what can be proven on paper that matters most. Let’s walk through some of the common ways lenders can look at employment status. Permanent Employment The gold star of employment. If your employer has made you a permanent employee, it means that your position is as secure as any position can be. When a lender sees permanent status (passed probation), it gives them the confidence that you’re valuable to the company and that they can rely on your income. Probationary Period Despite the quality of your job, if you’ve only been with the company for a short while, you’ll be required to prove that you’ve passed any probationary period. Although most probationary periods are typically 3-6 months, they can be longer. You might now even be aware that you’re under probation. The lender will want to make sure that you’re not under a probationary period because your employment can be terminated without any cause while under probation. Once you’ve made it through your initial evaluation, the lender will be more confident in your employment status. Now, it’s not the length of time with the employer that the lender is scrutinizing; instead, it’s the status of your probation. So if you’ve only been with a company for one month, but you’ve been working with them as a contractor for a few years, and they’re willing to waive the probationary period based on a previous relationship, that should give the lender all the confidence they need. We’ll have to get that documented. Parental Leave Suppose you’re currently on, planning to be on, or just about to be done a parental leave, regardless of the income you’re now collecting, as long as you have an employment letter that outlines your guaranteed return to work position (and date). In that case, you can use your return to work income to qualify on your mortgage application. It’s not the parental leave that the lender has issues with; it’s the ability you have to return to the position you left. Term Contracts Term contracts are hands down the most ambiguous and misunderstood employment status as it’s usually well-qualified and educated individuals who are working excellent jobs with no documented proof of future employment. A term contract indicates that you have a start date and an end date, and you are paid a specific amount for that specified amount of time. Unfortunately, the lack of stability here is not a lot for a lender to go on when evaluating your long-term ability to repay your mortgage. So to qualify income on a term contract, you want to establish the income you’ve received for at least two years. However, sometimes lenders like to see that your contract has been renewed at least once before considering it as income towards your mortgage application. In summary If you’ve recently changed jobs or are thinking about making a career change, and qualifying for a mortgage is on the horizon, or if you have any questions at all, please connect anytime. We can work through the details together and make sure you have a plan in place. It would be a pleasure to work with you!
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